The US government jacked up its forecast for oil production next year by 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) as the boom in shale oil drilling continues to confound expectations of slower growth.

The US Energy Information Administration now expects domestic output to rise to 9.53 mbpd, growing by around 1 mbpd for a third consecutive year, according to its latest monthly short-term energy outlook. A month ago the EIA had predicted output growth would slow in 2015 to 800,000 bpd. The US shale boom has allowed producers to unlock thousands of barrels of reserves, putting the US on course to become the largest producer of oil globally, which would dramatically reduce its dependence on imports.

“Rising monthly crude oil production, which will approach 10 million barrels a day in late 2015, will help cut US fuel imports next year to just 21 per cent of domestic demand, the lowest level since 1968,” EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski said.

The EIA also raised forecasts for 2014 US output to 8.53 mbpd from the previous estimate of 8.46 mbpd. It said US growth would account for 91 per cent of the 1.3 mbpd rise in global oil output next year. US crude oil production has reversed years of decline thanks to the development of shale resources, which have boosted output by more than 70 per cent in six years. Production averaged 8.6 mbpd in August, the highest level since July 1986, EIA data showed. Total US consumption of petroleum and other liquids was expected to dip to 18.92 mbpd in 2014 year on year, down 0.2 per cent from a year earlier. In 2015, total US consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels was expected to rise by 0.8 per cent to 19.08 mbpd, the EIA said. That figure is an upwards revision of 100,000 bpd from the previous forecast.

The EIA also lowered production forecasts for Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as member states adjust to accommodate growing production elsewhere. It decreased its 2014 forecast for Opec supply by 0.2 per cent to 35.77 mbpd and reduced its 2015 forecast by 0.6 per cent to 35.86 mbpd.

The EIA added that while almost all of Libya’s export terminals are able to export crude as protests have stopped, major issues that incited the protests remain unresolved. As a result, it does not expect Libya’s oil production to recover to previous levels over the forecast period.